FreightFigures published an importer playbook on 18 September 2026 after Bloomberg and Inside U.S. Trade reported on 17 September that the Section 301 structural excess-capacity determination is expected after, not before, the 24 September Trump-Xi summit. USTR and the White House did not comment. The previously expected recommendation was a 7.5% additional duty on Chinese goods; FreightFigures stresses that neither the rate nor an effective date has been published, and the summit could still change the number.
Context for the stack: USTR opened two self-initiated Section 301 cases in March 2026 after the Supreme Court struck down country-specific IEEPA tariffs in February. The forced-labor case ended in July with China in a 12.5% tier collected since 24 July. The excess-capacity case covers 16 jurisdictions including China, the EU, Japan, South Korea, India, Vietnam, Taiwan, Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia. FreightFigures frames 7.5% as filling the remainder of an approximately 20% second-term duty ceiling associated with the October 2025 truce, sitting on top of MFN, legacy 301 lists, forced-labor 301, and any Section 232 or AD/CVD lines.
Calendar planning in the piece assumes a short notice pattern like the July forced-labor action (finalized around 20 July, effective 24 July). If a report posts in late September, early- to mid-October entry dates are the working assumption. Duty is assessed on the consumption entry or warehouse withdrawal date, so bonding does not freeze today's rate. FreightFigures also flags 29 September Section 232 pharma timing for non-Annex III products and the 10 November expiry of 178 China exclusions as interacting clocks.