On 26 September 2026, FreightWaves published its Chart of the Week analysing the split between China–North America West Coast and China–Mediterranean container spots on the Freightos Baltic Daily Index (SONAR: FBXD.CNAW, FBXD.CMED).
FBXD.CNAW closed at $8,446 per FEU on 23 September—nearly double its 12-month average of $4,381 and about four times the September 2025 level. FBXD.CMED fell to $3,591 per FEU, down more than 50% from its July peak of $7,540 and below where it started the year. FreightWaves notes the relationship has flipped: a West Coast box now costs about 2.35 times a Mediterranean box, versus about 1.7× the other way in January.
SONAR port-pair booking data undercuts a simple “Europe demand collapse” story. Confirmed TEU bookings from Shanghai, Ningbo and Yantian to five major Mediterranean ports are up 38% year on year, with 11 of 13 lanes growing; 28-day average bookings are up roughly 11% since the 1 July rate peak. China–North Europe bookings are up 26% YoY and 7.5% since July. On the US/Canadian West Coast, total confirmed TEUs from China are up about 50% YoY, but nearly all growth is Long Beach; the median West Coast lane is up only about 1%, with Ningbo–Los Angeles down 33%.
Supply diverges by lane. Asia–Europe has been shifting services back through Suez (Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd moved four more Asia–Europe services off Cape routings this month; Suez container tonnage +54% YTD), raising effective capacity. The transpacific instead lost capacity to typhoon-driven China hub congestion since mid-July, heavy blanking (nine blanks in a single week this month) and higher bunker costs. Xeneta put global on-time arrivals at only 29% in August. Carriers are still rejecting fewer West Coast bookings than a year ago (8.3% vs 10.1%), which FreightWaves reads as price rationing rather than a pure ship shortage.
Analysts expect one more transpacific push before Golden Week factory shutdowns in early October, then possible easing as congestion clears and held-back capacity returns—Mediterranean’s sharp fall shows spots can drop quickly even when bookings hold up.