On 29 September 2026, Mysteel reported that China’s copper market is approaching the National Day holiday (1–7 October) with unusually little supply flexibility. A survey of 30 smelters and dozens of rod, foil, tube and bar producers found most smelters will keep furnaces running through the holiday to avoid restart costs, yet only four of 30 said they could hold normal finished inventories—many are shipping hand-to-mouth with material already pre-sold.
Feedstock is the binding constraint. Mysteel’s imported copper concentrate spot treatment charge stood at −$224.63 per dry metric tonne on 24 September, signalling extremely tight concentrate availability and heavy smelter losses, while weaker by-product sulfuric acid prices remove a traditional profit support. Mysteel estimated feedstock-related production losses of about 33,000 tonnes in August and 35,000 tonnes in September, with related monthly production reduction approaching 90,000 tonnes in the fourth quarter. Refined copper retail inventory was 80,700 tonnes on 28 September; only five of 30 surveyed smelters planned warehouse deliveries over the holiday (~15,000 tonnes total), so post-holiday inventory rebuild may be limited to roughly 10,000–20,000 tonnes versus a more typical 20,000–30,000 tonnes.
Physical tightness showed up in premiums: Shanghai #1 refined copper spot premiums hit ¥1,300/tonne on 23 September—the highest level this year—versus about ¥45/tonne on 24 September 2025, which Mysteel said suppressed broad downstream stockpiling. Sector splits matter for buyers: all 15 surveyed copper foil producers plan normal or near-full holiday operations on electronics and new-energy demand; rod makers are securing metal on dips; tube and bar are more order- and price-sensitive; and among 21 secondary copper rod producers, three may shut for lack of scrap/orders while fifteen say runs depend on procuring compliant scrap under ongoing tax-invoice adjustments. October also brings concentrated smelter maintenance—around 10 plants and 3.28 million tonnes of annual refining capacity—so importers of China-origin copper semis should assume elevated premiums and allocation risk into mid-October.