On 29 September 2026, Reuters reported a poll of 29 economists expecting China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) to rise to 50.1 in September from 49.8 in August, which would end two straight months of contraction. The National Bureau of Statistics was due to release the reading on Wednesday. The private RatingDog manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, was expected to edge up to 51.6 from 51.5.
Poll respondents linked the expected bounce to factories recovering from August weather disruption (heavy rain and typhoons in some regions). Advanced manufacturing and exports have outperformed other parts of the economy this year, while retail sales and investment data have pointed to weaker domestic momentum. Officials say the economy remains on track for the 4.5% to 5% annual growth target, with Q3 GDP and September activity data due later in the month.
A State Council meeting chaired by Premier Li Qiang on Monday said the government will launch a package of pragmatic incremental policy measures. Xinhua cited plans to study measures to stabilise the property market, promote employment and increase incomes. Goldman Sachs' Lisheng Wang called the tone targeted fiscal and credit easing rather than broad stimulus. Separately, China and the United States agreed this week to lower tariffs on $60 billion of each other's goods, including Chinese toys and household appliances, though analysts said the limited deal is unlikely to reset the broader trade relationship.