On 29 September 2026, Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) reported that China’s aluminum processing industry composite PMI came in at 53.9% in September, up sharply from 48.7% in August and back above the 50 expansion threshold after two months. SMM described a shift from a “weak recovery” to “structural expansion,” while divergence among seven major downstream sectors intensified.
Primary aluminum alloy PMI rose to 61.6% on stronger peak-season production willingness and finished-goods destocking; secondary alloy PMI jumped 13.4 percentage points month on month to 60.1% as auto and motorcycle orders improved. Aluminum foil PMI was 52.6%, supported by battery-foil schedules booked through December and full packaging-foil peak-season orders. Industrial profiles returned to expansion at 53.7% on NEV and energy-storage component demand. Construction aluminum profiles remained the only major segment below 50, at 48.9%, as weak new housing starts limited the “Golden September” boost.
The clearest stress for exporters was in plate, sheet and strip: the segment PMI was 56.7% with production and new orders both at 58.9%, but the new export orders index plunged to 39.7% and finished-goods inventory surged to 69.2%. SMM linked the export slump to a narrowing domestic–international price spread and aluminum prices staying above RMB 24,000/ton, which also slowed end-user pickup. Looking to October, SMM expects the composite PMI to pull back toward 50 as National Day holiday disruption and fading peak-season effects weigh, with plate/sheet sustainability in question under dual export and inventory pressure.