C.H. Robinson's October 2026 Freight Market Update (Edge) frames early October as a lane-specific planning month for Asia-origin freight rather than a uniform soft landing after China's Golden Week. On ocean, it says the main pressure point shifts to post-holiday sailings: planned blank sailings reduce effective Transpacific capacity through roughly mid-October, and the first departures after the holiday will show whether returning demand and existing backlogs keep preferred sailings tight.
Robinson notes that congestion is reducing usable capacity (it cites roughly 12% of vessel capacity tied up), so vessel bunching, port omissions, and transshipment delays can make published capacity less representative of what shippers can book. Asia-Europe is described as softer, with ample vessel supply and selected Suez returns, though North European congestion still adds schedule variability. Separately, a planned 1 October Panama Canal draft reduction was cancelled, but transit availability and missed reservation windows can still change routing.
On air freight, Robinson says China's Golden Week creates an early-month lull, then a stronger rebound as factories reopen. Technology, new-product, and time-sensitive cargo could tighten preferred Asia departures first. Strong U.S.-bound demand may pull freighter allocations toward Transpacific services, and oversized, dense, or temperature-controlled main-deck cargo faces fewer alternatives than standard belly freight. The planning note: watch the second and third weeks of October closely and confirm main-deck needs, preferred departures, airline cutoffs, and alternate gateways before flexibility narrows.