Foreign Policy reported on 22 September 2026 that rare earths will frame Chinese President Xi Jinping’s meeting with US President Donald Trump this week. The piece traces leverage back to April 2025 export restrictions after broad US tariffs, subsequent negotiations, and the one-year trade truce that expires in November. USTR Jamieson Greer has said China only gets a “passing grade” on rare-earth exports, and Chinese shipments of rare-earth magnets to the United States dropped again in August.
Jennifer Welch (Bloomberg Economics; former NSC China/Taiwan director) said the US is unhappy about rare-earth flows but also wary of actions that could shut them off. Cory Combs (Trivium China) said neither side wants to blow up the truce. Chris Kennedy (Bloomberg Economics; former NSC international economics director) said China is estimated to keep dominating rare-earth supply chains until at least 2030 across mining, separation, and magnet production, and that even on-schedule US projects leave dependence into the early-to-mid 2030s. He noted much non-China magnet production (for example in Japan) still relies on Chinese inputs and technology.
The article also notes Greer has floated a three-to-six-month truce extension range ahead of the summit, and that US defence contractors face a 1 January order to stop sourcing certain rare earths and minerals from China while munitions demand from the Iran war raises stockpile pressure. For commercial buyers, the near-term watch is licence and magnet shipment continuity through any extension text, not a fast end to China-linked rare-earth exposure.