World Ports Organization published on 22 September 2026 a Sea-Intelligence capacity readout for the four-week Golden Week window. Scheduled Asia-North America West Coast capacity is put at 1.49 million TEU (up 18% versus 2025 and 31% above the 2017-2019 average), with planned reductions of 9.4%. Asia-North America East Coast is scheduled at 935,200 TEU (up 17% year on year and 60% above the 2017-2019 average), with planned cuts of 9.1%. Asia-North Europe is scheduled at 1.50 million TEU (+27% vs 2025; +60% vs 2017-2019) with only 3.7% planned reductions and none in Golden Week or the following week. Asia-Mediterranean is forecast at 1.14 million TEU (+49% vs 2025; +141% vs 2017-2019), with planned blanks at 6.1% and none in weeks 40 and 41.
Sea-Intelligence attributes the elevated Transpacific offer in weeks 40 and 41 to vessel bunching from Asian port congestion, which creates double-sailings (seven on Asia-USWC in week 40 and eleven in week 41; twelve double-sailings across Asia-Europe in those two weeks). Named carrier moves already in the market include Maersk suspending the standalone Transpacific TPX extra loader after Maersk Boston sails from Vung Tau on 29 September (more than 10% of that route’s weekly capacity by available data) and MSC cancelling a week-41 Asia-USEC Emerald sailing on expected post-holiday demand slowdown.
The study’s buyer-facing conclusion is that record scheduled capacity is largely an operational backlog effect, not a durable strategy. Once delayed vessels clear and post-holiday factory output softens, oversupply risk rises and carriers have less time left for orderly blanks, so mid-to-late October published schedules should be treated as highly volatile, with short-notice cancellations and higher rolling risk.